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We have a very important FOMC today, with all eyes on the Powell conference to get guidance into the future of the hiking cycle. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates at this meeting. Markets are pricing in a hike at the moment. CME FedWatch predicts an 84% chance of the Fed raising the Fed funds rate to 5.25%-5.5% at its meeting, up from 74% last week. The labor market remains tight, with nonfarm payrolls growing. June consumer prices data eased concerns, and Q1 GDP growth of 2% in early July has boosted the chance of an additional quarter-point hike.
Housing continues to lack supply in the latest Redfin data release. Home sales have also dropped considerably because of the higher interest rates.
Rates have stayed relatively flat on the front end but bounced on the back end. Increasing strong economic data is causing fear of more rate hikes, but the market is confident that the hikes are over.
Oil is a bit of a darling in the macro world as crude rallied over the past week and continues to rise to start the week. We have long noted that the physical market has been quite constructive for large sections of the year. However, macro headwinds and capitalizing on this physical tightness are not always possible when trading liquid crude paper.
Tether Reports Strong Q2 Profit, Increases Exposure to US Treasuries
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This week we make Linguine with Razor Clams and a Verdicchio dei Castelli di Jesi.
Current Portfolio Allocation
CRYPTO: 21%
NFTs: 17%
STOCKS: 12%
PRIVATE EQUITY: 18%
STABLECOINS: 32%
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